“Someone’s got a handle on it, right?”: Birger Steen urges everyone to wake up from their rest

The phrase “If that happens, we have bigger problems” is a common response to catastrophic scenarios that feel too uncomfortable to confront truly.

“It’s a natural reaction, but the wrong starting point for dealing with ‘black swan’ risks,” Steen emphasises. “As the Covid-19 pandemic demonstrated, society must continue to function even when a crisis strikes. Banks must remain open, supply chains must be maintained, and people must continue to go to work. But to be able to carry on as normal in a crisis, you have to be prepared, even for scenarios with low probability.”

Steen points to a frightening example from Norway’s national emergency preparedness plan.

“A concrete example is the seventh scenario in Norway’s nuclear emergency preparedness framework, which describes the use of nuclear weapons in or near Norway. It’s something that has never been rehearsed or fully described — but which, unfortunately, we should be ready for.”

“The idea that someone, somewhere, is taking care of threats like this is an assumption we must stop using as an excuse.”

Dual-use investments

“The long peace” has shaped the economic system we operate in today, Steen argues. For 30 years, we have relied on hyper-efficient global supply chains that maximise growth and minimise cost. Now leaders must balance economic growth with increasing geopolitical and technological vulnerability.

“We have to stop optimising exclusively for growth and efficiency. We need to build in robustness, reserves, and a plan B, even if that reduces growth somewhat. Because these are complex trade-offs, not simple slogans, leaders must dig into the issues at every table where decisions are made.”

“But what about the investors? Do they also need to change their strategy?”

“The investment industry must also reassess its mandates. Today, over 90 per cent of private capital has restrictions that exclude investments in anything that can be used for defence — so-called dual-use — as well as defence and weapons technology. They have excluded this field out of a desire to be sustainable and ethical.”

“In contrast to the Oil Fund?”

“The irony is that the Norwegian state does invest in this area through the Oil Fund, the Government Pension Fund Norway, and others. It appears that the state's investments reflect a broader responsibility for security and defence than the narrower ESG requirements (Environmental, Social, and Governance) that most private funds have used as guidelines over the past 10–15 years.”

Innovation capacity in Ukraine

Even though the state is investing and new initiatives are emerging, the pace is still too slow, warns Birger Steen. He highlights Ukraine as an example of both impatience and innovation. In September, Brave1 — the country’s equivalent of Innovation Norway — filled an entire football stadium with locally developed military technology and attracted investors from around the world.

“Right now, Kyiv may have the most vibrant startup environment in the world. Innovation is happening under extremely challenging conditions, often driven by young, highly educated people. Ukrainians are, of course, forced to innovate at an extreme pace, but we need to learn from this. In Norway and NATO, it still takes many years from the moment a need is identified until a solution is ready.”

Birger Steen’s central message is that “the holiday is over.” Hope is not a strategy — and pretending the problems don’t exist doesn’t work.

“There are no simple solutions in this area — only difficult trade-offs that require courageous leadership. We need an open conversation about what security costs and about the consequences of inaction.”